US CPI Preview: Swaps and yield moves will drive the USD’s reaction to the inflation print – Scotiabank

USD edges marginally lower ahead of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes how US inflation data could impact the Dollar.

Markets are looking for soft inflation data

Price action suggests that markets are looking for soft inflation data – a decent bet as recent US inflation data reports have tended to surprise more on the downside relative to market expectations. The first move (in response to data) is not always the right move, as we saw with Friday’s NFP, however. 

Beyond the CPI data, I still rather think broader risks are geared toward some strengthening in the USD in the next few weeks. 

Markets are pricing in around 18 bps of Fed easing in March now. Swaps and yield moves will drive the USD’s reaction to the inflation print.