Forex Flash: USD long positioning structural in nature vs. episodic – ANZ

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD long positioning across most surveys is currently very significant, perhaps even extreme. Certainly recent developments in Europe have encouraged a cautionary stance from investors. “Our sense, however, is that USD long positions are also more structural in nature, and in effect reflect a view that the dollar has made an important secular turn, and will strengthen against most currencies going forward.” notes the ANZ Research Team.

Certainly the US growth cycle seems more well founded than anywhere else in the G4. The US balance of payments, however, is structurally weak. The Q4 2012 US balance of payments data was recently released, and provided a neat summary on this view.